Sunday, January 11, 2009

How To Make Good Decisions Quickly

(I originally posted this elsewhere a year ago, before starting this blog.)

I have some advice on how to make decisions which you may find useful.

I used to have a lot of trouble with decisions. I would treat each one as though making the wrong choice would cost me greatly - even in trivial cases like picking a dish at a restaurant. Obviously, this is a mistake. However, fixing that kind of overthinking isn't simply a matter of seeing the problem... at least, it wasn't for me. I had to figure out exactly how and why being quicker was OK.


No Fear

The first thing to realize is to think about the worst case: what actually happens if you make the wrong call? In the restaurant case, the worst thing that could happen (realistically) is that you don't end up liking your meal as much as you would have liked the other possible meal. OK, that's not a big deal. Heck, even if it's painful to eat, it'll be over in an hour. In the context of your life, it's completely irrelevant.

The only stuff you need to be afraid of is choices that might ruin your life. For example, shooting someone is a bad idea (and that's ignoring the fact that you ruined their life, too). In fact, you might as well make it a policy to not carry loaded firearms around. That simplifies that problem greatly. Another example of something to be careful about is posting stuff on the internets. Even if you remove it later, that information is probably going to be out there forever, because automated programs are constantly following links and grabbing web pages for indefinite storage. Anything with the word 'forever' involved is something you should consider carefully. These are the type of decisions you need to really reflect on. If you think your future self might care about it, that's when you need to really take some time on that choice.

But the rest of the time, when the downside is only temporary, you should be willing and able to choose in a few seconds to a minute, and you should have no fear because there is no need. Now I will explain which choice to take.


Different is Good

Let's get back to the food example, and say I made a bad choice: I don't like what I got. Well, in addition to the temporary pain, there's also a big upside: you now know not to make that choice again! While it may not seem like you've gained a whole lot of knowledge, that small bit of knowledge can really make itself useful over a lifetime. For example, say you visit that fine establishment again and a fellow diner is contemplating trying that same dish. You can now advise him or her to avoid it, and already your bad experience has repaid itself (assuming you enjoy being helpful). Or, perhaps it just saves you a couple seconds every time you have to make a similar decision in the future. That could be worth it too, especially considering you are likely to make that mistake sometime in your long life. Might as well make it early and save time on future decisions, right? Finally, maybe you'll take a moment and tell the cook that your dish seemed lacking, and suggest a way to improve it. That could make a big difference in the profitability of the restaurant! Even though you might feel uncomfortable doing it, that would probably be a big favor to them which you are only capable of due to your mistake. What all this adds up to is the strange fact that it might actually be better to make the "wrong" choice. It's basically really hard to tell. So you don't even need to worry about which dish is better, because that wouldn't even imply that ordering it would be the better choice! Just pick either one. It doesn't really matter.

Anyhow, in this food example we were assuming you hadn't tried either dish before. But say you are choosing which way to walk home from school. There's a way you've taken many times, which you know is good, and another way you've never tried before. Obviously you are going to take the route you always do - it's not even a contest. There is no risk, because you know it will work. If you take the other route, you might get lost, or it might take longer.

Except that those things don't matter in the long run.

You should seriously consider taking the alternate route instead, just because it's different. First of all, getting lost will - in the long run - result in you having extra knowledge about the neighborhood. If you ever get lost there in the future when it's more important, you'll be very happy to have had that experience. Second, what if it's actually quicker, or even just more scenic? Presumably you travel home a lot, so this will save you time over and over again. Maybe that's not likely... but the cost is basically nonexistant and the possible benefit is gigantic.

In general, whenever you do something different, you will gain some knowledge compared to if you had done it the same. That knowledge is much, much more precious than the factors you normally base most small decisions on. Humans have a bad sense of scale and tend to overvalue security. To counteract this, you need to realize that the novelty of a choice is a huge factor in its favor. If you're ever unsure of what to do, do the thing that seems different from the other ones. And even if you are pretty confident of what to do, give variety a chance.


Worrying Doesn't Help

You need to realize that most of the time you are thinking longer about a decision, you aren't actually being constructive - you are just worrying. In addition, you might worry after making you choice, wondering if it was the right one. These worries are useless. For me, they went away as soon as I realized that I could make decisions almost randomly (as described above) and nothing bad would happen. It's a wonderful feeling.


What About Hard Decisions?

One final note: not all decisions can be made quickly. If you're choosing which college to go to or something equally life-affecting, you should think about your choice for several days if possible. Ask your friends and family what they think, and why (that second part is the important bit - the information they have will help you make your decision in a way that an opinion can't). What I usually do with important decisions is just put them on the back burner for a week or two. If you just wait long enough, and don't neglect to gather information, you will eventually wake up and know which choice you want to take.


In Summary:
  • Unless it will have severe long-term implication, you don't need to worry about it. Just pick something.
  • Favor the choices that stand out as being different.
  • Observe the consequences and enjoy yourself.
  • Take much, much, much longer for big decisions.

Thanks for reading.